Sunday Ramble
The juggle. That’s the most challenging part of being a father, husband, employee, son, and brother. Where to put my time and attention to keep myself and my inner-circle relations balanced? Weekends have become sacred for us now that I’m in all-consuming startup land. So much so that my daughter is already saying she’s missing me, knowing that I’ll be gone next weekend for business in Miami — obviously, I chose to prioritize family this weekend.
Enough of my hemming and hawing over time decisions. Most everyone vested in the crypto markets is in fear mode now that Bitcoin has pulled back 41% from its latest peak. It’s the crypto-coaster that bucks off most newcomers who can’t understand the wild ride of Bitcoin. Our rational minds can understand how a fixed-supplied asset can reach incredible heights and cascade back down even more quickly. But the game changes with money on the line — the whipsaw of emotions is not for the faint of heart or those who risk too much. With almost everyone experiencing the joy of a 50% drawdown, the Bitcoin bucking bronco teaches each person their risk limits. A McDonald’s meme has even popped up to lighten moments like these.
Inevitably, near the bottom, a bright scholar will join the list of scholars claiming that Bitcoin will die — the last being on December 28th. Looking at Bitcoin obituaries brings me no small measure of glee. Four hundred forty times, preeminent and authoritative voices have crowded the podium to eulogize and dance on Bitcoin’s grave. You’d think since it’s not died after 440 claims in 12 years, that folks would learn from their predecessors, but they don’t. Instead, it’s an exceedingly rare eulogizer who swallows their pride and comes back publicly to admit defeat by Bitcoin. Thankfully, the market has wised up and cackles at these people now.
How do I know? Because the transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain tells me. There’s an all-important stat called illiquid supply. And it’s at all-time highs. What is illiquid supply? The amount of bitcoin unavailable for those looking to buy. The opposite is liquid supply. These are coins frequently moved as they’re bought and sold. The total of liquid and illiquid supply is all the bitcoin in existence, save those that haven’t been mined. At this point, there’s a bit more than 2M of the 21M left to be mined. In sum, there are 19M coins split between liquid and illiquid supply. And latest data has the illiquid supply skyrocketing to 76%, despite the heavy selling pressure. That leaves roughly 4.5M coins available in the market to be traded.
And this is the part that so few people outside of Bitcoin understand — the market bottoms when the weak hands fold and sell off their positions, i.e., those that don’t get it. When no more people sell Bitcoin, the price goes up because the holders won’t sell. They’re in it come hell or high water. Then, of course, the holders are browbeaten by the Wall Street elite for their stupidity in holding a declining asset. Still, as surely as the 440 grave dancers have realized the casket is empty, Bitcoin’s price begins to rise again, making the holders wealthy. The longer it goes, the more confidence the holders have, and Wall Street loses credibility. And each time there’s a violent shake-out, the long-term holders scoop up more, knowing that there are no more than 21M Bitcoin that will ever exist.
It is just a matter of time before the utter simplicity of 21M bitcoin reaches you. The sooner, the richer. It’s an easy game — buy, hold, and don’t look for a decade. You win.
Rad Things on the Interwebs
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Weekly Range: $37k - $46k
We’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto. The $45k bottom held through the holidays gave way on Monday when the pros got back to their desks. As suspected, the price plunged pretty quickly once it did, reaching as low as $40.5k. Bitcoin’s price is currently trading at $41.8k, attempting a rebound. To get bullish again, we need to see a push over $44k. The more likely route is a bounce followed by another drop. The trend is bearish and has been since the December 4th sell-off. That said, we are at firm support, with fear at a maximum and substantial leverage wiped out of the markets. This area is logical to see the bulls take a stand. Should $39k fail to hold, $37k, then $29k comes into play. More importantly, this week will be how the macro markets perform since much of the Bitcoin sell-off came amidst a tightening of Fed policy. All in all, I suspect $39k to hold this week unless the broader markets take a digger.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: What is Bitcoin?
A: The second emergent form of money.
Across the planet, and at different times, various cultures adopted gold as their basis for money. There are many reasons for this, but what’s important is that choosing gold as money emerged decentrally. Except for the last 51 years, gold has been the primary means of money for humanity for thousands of years. In the same way that gold emerged, Bitcoin is emerging as a form of money for people decentrally choosing it.
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Bitcoin donations accepted
So, I truly wish I had more to put into BTC right now! I am looking to move now kids are older and as much as I need to get while the get’n good, I need to try and make gains a little quicker. Any thoughts on doing something with tax returns going directly into something like BlockFi or even CRO etc… and earn passive and borrow against? “ not financial advice” of course:) I will pose this to CT crew as well. We will see… just doing a lot of thinking on next chapter as I still work, but can work from anywhere. Hopefully you join them back on channel soon. Cheers!