Daily Ramble
Ok. I’ve had my coffee, a quick slide down a few waves, and I’m ready to connect the loose ends on this “Age of Honor” Ramble. Here’s Part I, if you missed it.
First, let’s recap briefly: for the first time in human history, individuals can store their wealth outside the coercive impacts of their nation-state’s monetary and fiscal policy. It is impossible to overstate the importance of this shift. Bitcoin is the tool enabling this. Nation-state mismanagement of money supply is creating a billionaire class out of the early and/or big Bitcoin investors. This new class is likely to move their wealth to favorable jurisdictions competing for their business. The relationship between nation-state and citizen will shift as citizens move into a role more akin to customer than employee of the nation-state.
The crypto life is new to most, so I’ll slow my roll by backing this up with a bit of early evidence: businesses already exist that help crypto wealthy individuals relocate, I know individuals that have already shed their native nationalities, and others are crypto nomads living where it best suits them.
Now, how does this add up to an Age of Honor? The new relationship between governments and their citizens will shift the balance of power. Jurisdictions are likely to break into smaller territories as they become more attuned to their customers, aka citizens, needs. Imagine the “think global, act local” slogan we’ve all loved but haven’t seen in practice. We’ll eventually have a patchwork quilt of sovereign territories if the ocean pushing this tidal wave persists. And I don’t see how it won’t. Moving wealth outside the control of government is on par with Guttenberg’s printing press some 500 years ago. The knock on effects of the printing press terra-formed society into a new phase as the Catholic church’s central authority in life gave way to the nation state. Sovereign control of wealth will do no less.
But how does this equal an Age of Honor? Because we are not losing our humanity, we still need individuals we can rely on and trust. Throughout the Industrial Age, that central source of truth has come from the nation-state that has protected us. It’s no coincidence that paternalistic language is used to talk about our nation states: motherland, fatherland, Uncle Sam, etc. As the nation-state format gives way to a patchwork quilty of entitities and the impact of the local becomes of maximum importance, individuals will take the place for providing our source of truth.
Those individuals may be from the local territory and/or voices online. I’m not certain. What I am certain about is that humanity organically promotes leaders, no government necessary. Elon Musk is one example. I would argue that Crypto Twitter is showing this as well — the desire for reputational credibility keeps individuals in check. Personally, after months of watching them, I now trust multiple individuals on my Twitter feed more than any newsource. They have more at stake as individuals earning their bread than journalistic organizations. With the rise of sovereign individuals, we will see this play out on a bigger scale. Online or territorial mobs will tear down individuals who have been elevated to “trustworthy” but are shown to be otherwise. The societal incentive structure will align with honor and individual integrity.
The Age of Honor will come both quicker than we can imagine but also longer than a few years. It will be an Age where we witness automic individuals voluntarily collect into societal structures for the first time. Some say that’s the first step necessary for us to evolve into the next stage of humanity…including me.
Shout out to The Sovereign Individual, Michael Saylor, and Robert Breedlove for their influences in these last two Rambles.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
Busted!
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $49k - $57k
Today: $57k - $62k
Tomorrow: $54k - $62k
The stimulus checks have started landing in American bank accounts, and some of it appears to be flowing into Bitcoin already. A reputable survey firm concluded that $40B of the $1900B in stimulus would flow into Bitcoin directly, which translates into a $2000 price appreciation in Bitcoin, not counting the sizable momentum it’ll generate in price activity.
What does that mean for pricing today and tomorrow? First, I undershot yesterday’s predicted high and likely today’s as well. We hit $59k by yesterday’s close, and today could see us push up to retest the $62k all-time high again. At the moment, we’re at a point of indecision. As long as we stay above $54k, the picture looks rosy, but a loss of that key area will likely lead further down. The most likely outcome is a retrace to $57k before continuing back up to the $62k high. I don’t anticipate clearing $62k before the weekend, though, outside of some unexpected bullish news occurring.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Q: What’s a fair price for Bitcoin?
A: $135k per bitcoin
I say this only slightly tongue-in-cheek after listening to a recent What Bitcoin Did podcast episode with Greg Foss. Greg offers a valuation model based on Bitcoin acceptance as bond insurance by bond market traders. His analysis concludes that, right now, Bitcoin should be priced at $110k-$165k per Bitcoin based on the value of offsetting the risk in the bond markets. That number is likely to grow because the bond market will need higher insurance amounts to offset bond risks as governments are forced to print more money. TL; DR Governments print money, and their debt i.e., bonds, become riskier to hold driving Bitcoin’s price up.
Listen here.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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