Apologies
Daily Ramble
Apologies if you were expecting an email yesterday. I’m going to chalk it up to operator error (me) on hitting the incorrect set of buttons to publish. The good news is that I’m alive and well. The better news: here’s yesterday’s post if you’d like to catch up.
While we’re on the subject of apologies, let’s talk about them. I’m going to side-step the obvious apology discussion surrounding the “cancel culture” and “impossible to apologize” problems plaguing much of online society at the moment. Instead, I’m going to tell a recent father-daughter pre-amble then story:
If you’ve never had a 2.5 year old, then you might not know how much kids like to test boundaries. And they’ll be successful from time-to-time, even if you’re a trained Zen master. Even yours.
I can’t recall why I was on edge — not enough sleep, too much caffeine, etc… — but I was holding Naia in one arm clearly not paying her enough attention when she whacked my mouth. Almost instinctively, I reached up and flicked her nose telling her to stop it. The siren broke out in my ear and I instantly felt guilty for the thump I’d given. Guilty enough to break my funk and have a sit down with her. Then the most incredible thing happened. We swapped apologies and then I asked her to forgive me, she did and instantly giggled in delight. Did you catch that? She giggled in delight.
If you haven’t discovered the joy of forgiveness yet, you’re missing out. Just ask a 2.5 year old.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
Did that make you gag too? Sorry…had to share
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $18.7k - $19.5k
Today: $19k - $20k
Tomorrow: $19k - $22k
Not much to say that hasn’t been said before regarding Bitcoin’s price action: sideways with a side of sideways. The Asian session brought an attempt to break above $19.5k only to be instantly rejected. The fact that we didn’t drop further after the $400 price drop suggests bulls are marginally in control. If so, though sideways, we should see the price grind slightly up and to the right. We’ll know more when the range breaks. Until then, continue to practice the art of watching paint dry.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Yesterday I explained that Bitcoin self-regulates through a difficulty adjustment. That just means that mining periodically becomes more difficult and less difficult, throttling the minting of new Bitcoin to a pre-determined rate, not to exceed 21 million Bitcoin in total. Did I lose you?
Maybe an explanation of how the throttling works will clear the air. First, remember that miners create a new block by hashing the contents of the new block so that the first digit is 0. Every two weeks, the protocol looks at how many blocks were mined and if it’s more blocks than was expected, it requires that the second digit is a 0 as well, meaning that the first two digits are now 00. The miner now has to hash the block contents and solve for a hash that starts with 00 instead of 0. That’s more difficult and takes more energy to accomplish. Throttle up — more leading 0s. Throttle down — less leading 0s. That simple.
If you got all that, you’ve mastered the most complicated aspect of Bitcoin — how no more than 21M Bitcoin can be mined.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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