Bitcoin Aligned
Daily Ramble
Midday jungle rain is a blessing. The oppressive midday heat and humidity combo is a knockout punch that normalizes siestas — it’s hard to fit in enough coffee and cold showers to power through. At least, as our new landlord pointed out, it’s not as hot as Manila in the Philippines, where he lived for 20 years. Heat-rashes were common there. And if the idea of a heat rash is new to you as well, that’s where your skin gets red spots under the armpits and on your back from too much sweating. So thank you, but no, thank you. Thankfully, the rain keeps the knockout punch at bay, even if it makes for a fussy mom and daughter stuck indoors on top of each other.
I’ve been thinking a lot about the idea of Bitcoiners versus Bitcoin Aligned today. There’s a shyness around folks saying they’re fans of Bitcoin. I’ve discovered that many are but hide it under cover of being “pro-crypto.” One of the primary reasons is the outrageous behavior of the extremists in the Bitcoiner community. Being called an idiot for having faith in the “USD backed by the full faith and credit of the US government” is not the most endearing trait of Bitcoiners but happens quite often. And that’s the tame version. Innocuous questions from normies can become battle cries to Bitcoiners who pile on to the unassuming with their contemptuous responses. Bitcoiners are so far down the “what is money?” trail that they’ve utterly forgotten the starting point is the belief that fiat is a sound currency. And it is — until it’s compared to Bitcoin. The leap from the trail’s starting point to the endpoint of taunting others for believing what they used to think is laughable but human. In life, if your belief system changes, it seems to offer entitlement to make fun of the people you’ve left behind. Who knows, maybe we’re just embarrassed for our previous ways of thinking.
The problem with being a Bitcoiner is that there’s always a higher bar to achieve to be considered an acceptable Bitcoiner. Do you own some Bitcoin? Sorry, not a Bitcoiner until you custody your private keys. Do you have your hardware wallet? Sorry, not a Bitcoiner until you’re running a node. Do you have your node? Sorry, not a Bitcoiner until you’ve set up a multisig wallet, have a Block Clock, and have tattooed the text of the genesis block on your forehead “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.” I jest, but there is an arms race in the Bitcoiner community to out Bitcoin one another.
Zealotry aside, there is another way. I thoroughly enjoyed hearing Pete Rizzo, Editor of the Bitcoin Magazine, discuss the other, calmer path with Pomp on his podcast. It’s called being Bitcoin Aligned. Instead of being forced to live a life of absolution, the idea of being Bitcoin Aligned is to reflect if your actions align you with the concepts of Bitcoin. It means understanding the principles of the Bitcoin network: self-sovereign, decentral, trust but verify, censorship-resistant, numbers don’t lie, etc., and applying them to your life. It’s a process instead of a destination. Own Bitcoin but not feeling confident of holding your keys? No problem, you’re still Bitcoin Aligned, just not as far down the adoption path. Believe in Bitcoin but trying to make more Bitcoin by trading for altcoins? No problem, you’re still Bitcoin aligned, just risking your Bitcoin. Want to spend some USD to book airfare? No worries, you’re Bitcoin aligned, just not utilizing your Bitcoin for all purchases.
I could go on and on with the examples, but the truth is that being Bitcoin Aligned is a big tent with tremendous space, allowing people at any point of the adoption curve to join. As opposed to the altar of the high priests of Bitcoiners who limit the group of Bitcoiners to only those deemed worthy. While zealotry serves a purpose, most of us would prefer to hang out and help each other learn the ropes with Bitcoin than shout down those that aren’t Bitcoining to the extreme. So the next time you feel intimidated by learning something in the Bitcoin space, ask yourself if you’re Bitcoin Aligned instead of trying to live up to an impossible standard set by the anointed holy few to be a pure Bitcoiner. It’s a much more pleasant and welcoming life. The zealots can make it to Bitcoin heaven without me.
Rad Things on the Interwebs
Ya got me… I’ve got a soft spot for slapstick.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Weekly Range: $58k - $75k
Since I’m not getting my newsletter out daily, I’m going to trial weekly pricing predictions. A few caveats: the accuracy will be lower, the range will be wider, and I’ll give the practice up entirely if I perform horribly.
So, where are we this week? We broke out to an all-time high at $67k last week, where many investors took profits and drove the price down to $61k by the weekly close—nothing out of the ordinary for a bull market. And as overly bullish as the market is now, we could see a further drop to wash out the sentiment before continuing. The furthest I see that going is $58k. If it goes further, then we’re not in Kansas anymore, and I’ll re-evaluate. On the other hand, if we see $67k break, I suspect Bitcoin will do what it typically does when it heads into the deep waters of price discovery — moves up quickly and shockingly. We’re in a bull market. Act accordingly.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: Will this Bitcoin cycle be the same as the previous one, meaning, will it peak in December and then have an 85% drawdown?
A: I don’t know.
The question is the trillion-dollar question since it is likely to be the amount of lost value in Bitcoin’s network if the scenario were to play out. But there is no assurance that it will. There are signs that we are entering a different phase of the market, which will lead to a cycle top sometime in 2022, followed by a drawdown of no more than 50%. Of course, knowing what the market will do is impossible, so the best approach is to plan for the worst-case scenario while remaining open to the change. Regardless, if there’s a life-changing amount of money on the table for you at some point (pay off your mortgage, retire, etc.), take it, don’t let greed get the best of you and cause you to hold on until the market takes it back.
Do you have questions or Ramble topics? Leave a comment or reply to the newsletter to reach me.
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