Change Up
Bitcoin Update
I figure most everyone opening my daily rag is keener on Bitcoin at the moment than my ramblings. I’ve got no shame in shifting the cadence to prioritize my readers’ interest. So Bitcoin first it is today.
Price
As predicted, yesterday's price ran from a low of $17.6k to a high of $18.8k. Today’s price has already gotten off to a good start today jumping over the psychological barrier of $19k with no real slow down in sight. The last major resistance at $20k, the prior all-time high, is the only thing stopping price from reaching blue sky territory where it’ll default into true price discovery. Predicting a range today is difficult because the reaction around the prior all-time high will either have fireworks or be a fizzle. When a highly observed resistance point is reached, the outcome becomes binary: either it moves through it like a hot knife through butter or it recoils like a bottle rocket off the ceiling.
TL;DR Today’s range I’m anticipating being between $18k - $25k, with decreasing probabilities past $20k.
Continuing Ed
I’m working on a better title for this section, but for the time being Continuing Ed will do.
Ever hear anyone say “Bitcoin’s backed by nothing. How can it have value?” This is one of those statements that make no sense with, oh, let’s say, about 30 seconds of thought.
First, is the euro or dollar backed by anything? Unless you call the threat of government force a backing, not at all. So, nearly all the folks reading this right now already are used to money that has no backing. Second, Bitcoin IS backed by something. What? Electricity. Based on the network’s current energy consumption each Bitcoin takes 23.6 MWh of electricity to produce. The typical residential energy rate is about $.15/kWh, meaning that each Bitcoin has a real cost of $3,551 to produce. Ok, I simplified things to make a point, but don’t get lost in the numbers. The moral of the story is that there’s a real cost associated with producing each Bitcoin.
Next time you hear someone say that Bitcoin is backed by nothing, feel free to set them straight.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
Not funny in the least, but the fact that Bitcoin has already reached all-time highs for billions of people means that the Bitcoin message is spreading far and wide. And that makes me smile.
Daily Ramble
I’m up against the clock needing to pick my daughter up from daycare, so I’ll just say a few words to close out.
Pandemic life is about to set in here for us in Portugal as lockdowns go into effect from Saturday through Tuesday for the next two weekends. That means we need to stay within our concelhos (a bit bigger than a town but smaller than a county). That sucks. Not that I had any real travel plans, but it does mean that people will crowd into the shops when the restrictions are lifted. I get that politicians are trying to earn votes by attempting to impose order on a microscopic particle, but the logic behind it all just seems so…. inconsistent. Hope it’s better where you are.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
Or
I don’t really care. I’m just going to keep writing thoughts into the void and see what happens.