Consistency
Daily Ramble
Some days…they don’t get off the start line. I’m not sure if it’s something I ate last night, the current phase of the moon, or middle-east conflict, but I’ve felt like a truck hit me the last 12 hours. The brain fog has nestled deeply in the foothills of my mind like a San Francisco summer day where, by 10 AM, you can tell there’s not going to be a sunset to enjoy.
So be it. The good part about having a dog and kid is that I’m forced to keep-on-keepin’ on. On my morning walk today, I was listening to a brief history of Palestine on Throughline, a podcast that delves into historical topics I rarely know anything about. If you’ve missed the news cycle the last couple of weeks, congratulations — I’m sure you’re more upbeat about life than those of us that can’t quite shake the habit. But you’re likely the exception, rather than the norm, who has been seeing the Israel-Palestinian conflict in all its ugly glory as missiles rain down, killing many and destroying even more lives.
I don’t know what to make of the conflict, except that I hate all the suffering involved. It’s all so twisted up and complicated in tribal identity, religion, and territorialism that the situation's complexity hurts my pea brain. But there was one point, which I had heard before, that has been rattling around my head: the Israel state was formed on the idea that the Jewish people were reclaiming the land they had been pushed out from in the past. I’m too lazy to break down the claim's merits or not, but that idea got me thinking about another culture using the same logic: China.
I’ve written about China in previous Rambles, which you can read about here. China is in the process of reclaiming several territories that, hundreds of years ago, were part of sovereign China. These areas include Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Tibet lost its fight for independence in the 1990s, Hong Kong in the last couple of years, and Tawain is firmly in China’s crosshairs. The merits of China taking over these territories is also something that I’m also too lazy to write about today. But here’s the question I’ve been wrestling with: if Israel’s logic in reclaiming ancient territory is valid, then isn’t China’s?
I hear a lot of gnashing of teeth around China’s actions but not Israel’s. And I don’t get it — there’s something logically inconsistent that bugs me. If you’ve got less brain fog today, feel free to help clear mine up on the subject. I’m certain I’m missing something…
Favorite Things on the Interwebs Today
China is well on its way to create the first fusion reactor in the world…wait, WHAT?!
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $36.5k - $42k
Today: $32k - $39k
Weekend: $28k - $40k
My best guess yesterday looks to be for naught — the $40.7k zone was not breached and the bulls exhausted, leading to the price breaking down to $35.3k. Below $36k, the situation becomes dicey for the bulls to continue pushing the price up. The weight of downward momentum becomes more likely for a continued sell-off. If we close the day below $37k, I anticipate a revisit to $30k and perhaps even $28k over the weekend. Unfortunately, things are looking decidedly less like a bull market here. Looking further out, I would now predict that it will take a few months for the market to heat up again instead of a quick recovery. Not the greatest prediction, but a great time for those not in a Bitcoin position yet to start dollar-cost averaging into the market.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: What is your favorite wallet for the Lightning Network?
A: Blue Wallet
Blue Wallet is an app offering both a Bitcoin wallet and a Lighting Wallet. The Bitcoin wallet is non-custodial, allowing users to manage their own private keys, but the Lightning wallet is custodial, allowing a simpler user experience. It provides a clean, easy interface with many customizable features under the hood for the advanced user.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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