Crowds
Daily (Surf) Ramble
I don’t know how it happened, but somehow the open surf lineups I’ve been used to are no longer. It’s been humid, wet, and still the last few days. I could tell without looking that the seas were pushing in from the south. Most US West Coasters would likely not want to believe that their Pacific works almost identical to the Atlantic’s western seaboard here in Portugal, but it does. When that tropical feel is in the air, the swell long period coming in from the south. It gets my juices pumping.
That’s all surf talk for good, fun waves. The sandbars for enjoying these southerly swells are a bit fickle, but thanks to the internets, the entire Lisbon region finds out when they're set up. Or maybe the pandemic pushing people from the crowded “Cascais line” on the opposite side of the Sintra mountain has resulted in more people living in our region. Who knows, but the line-up was crowded today. I had the chance to talk with another local about it afterward. We were both just shaking our heads at the difference in a measly two years.
Now, I’ve been rightly reprimanded for talking too often about the good life here in Portugal, so it’s good to give a taste for first-world problems here too. I’m also sensitive to being the type of ex-pat who wants to close the immigration door behind him now that I’m through it. Instead, please take this as my first taste of nostalgia for the way things used to be now that I’m 7 years into my Portuguese experience. And it’s an inspiration for me to get more adventurous with my surf locations. Although beach cams at every break let me know the surf's quality, it does the same for everyone else and their beach dogs. If there’s one thing I’ve consistently prioritized in surfing, it’s fewer people. Not no people, just a comfortable group less than 10, sharing the waves without the feeling of territorial competition pushing in on the joys of wave sliding.
Darn, I’ve talked myself into surfing again tomorrow…only somewhere else.
Favorite Things on the Interwebs Today
Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky's ambition personified.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $61k - $70k
Today: $61k - $64k
Tomorrow: $58k - $66k
The price volatility I anticipated with the Coinbase listing on the NASDAQ has come and gone. It amounted to a price swing of 5.5% from top to bottom as the price of Bitcoin sold off then partially recovered. Today looks like a consolidation day as the price moves sideways between $61.3k and $63.5k. A break of either side is likely to see a continuation in the respective direction. I’m anticipating that we’ll not see either side broken today, but we will likely tomorrow. As long as we close over the $61.2k on the day, then the door to $70k continues to be wide open and the most likely outcome. A breakdown below $61.2k, though unlikely, would not be healthy for the bull market after breaking out of the region for the first time in two months.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: How does the Coinbase listing on NASDAQ impact Bitcoin?
A: Indirectly.
Yesterday, Coinbase shares were listed on the NASDAQ. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges listed on one of the largest stock exchanges, while ironic, brings legitimacy and awareness to the crypto markets. Bitcoin is the largest driver, by far, of the crypto markets.
After the US gold rush of the 1800s, it became common knowledge that those making the picks and shovels for gold miners did much better than the gold miners themselves. That thesis has long been applied to the crypto space, with Coinbase being the first “pick and shovel maker” whose data will be public knowledge from now on. Bitcoin outperforming Coinbase, which I believe will occur over time, will only strengthen the narrative that Bitcoin itself is the store of value to hold, not equity in those providing services around it. Either way, it’s hard to see how Coinbase being public can be anything but a good thing for the crypto industry.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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