Cuba
Daily Ramble
I wrote about China yesterday and feel compelled to talk about its distant communist cousin, Cuba, today. Why? Because they’re so incredibly different, it’s hard to call them both communist.
Some friends and I went to Cuba in 2008 for a 10-day trip. US friends and family were worried we were doing something illegal. We weren’t. At that point, it was unlawful to spend US dollars in Cuba — it might still be, I don’t know. In reality, the US has no jurisdiction over its citizens’ movements outside US borders. To dutifully respect the legality of the situation, we flew through Mexico, changed our US dollars for Mexican pesos, then transformed our Mexico pesos for Cuban pesos. The airfare was arranged by a Canadian travel agency who booked it all for us in Canadian dollars — we reimbursed them in US dollars. On arrival, the Cubans were kind enough to provide us entry stamps on paper instead of our passports. US border agents only knew we’d come in and out of Mexico — no questions, no concerns.
Travel shenanigans were the least interesting part of the journey, though. What most captured my imagination was the grayness of the country. At 28 years of age, it was the first time I felt my sense of certainty truly challenged. Cuba was a land where my black and white understanding of the world didn’t work. On the one hand, Cuban citizens were repressed by their government. Making money and talking freely were severely managed activities. There was no serious opportunity for them to make more than a pittance. On the other hand, the creative energy that would typically have gone into money-making was put into music, sculpture, and other arts in a way I still have not felt anywhere else in the world. More than once, we found ourselves in the midst of joyful, foot-stomping jam sessions at a random corner house. Later, I came to believe that these types of jam sessions were the way the culture had discovered to transform their sadness into joy.
It wasn’t just the art/money relationship that befuddled me, but how trusting people were of one another. For locals, as an example, it was illegal not to pick up hitchhikers. In the US, hitchhiking was the route serial killers took, but it was the law of the land in Cuba. There were designated hitchhiking stops with authorities posted nearby to enforce compliance. Threats of violence were almost non-existence — the authorities had full control over that domain, so there was little fear of violence between people. The legacy of difficulty between the two countries was a source of initial concern, but our reception by Cubans was the warmest of anywhere I’ve since traveled. They literally embraced us as brothers—more confusion.
I still think fondly about Cuba and continue to romanticize about another trip. And I still feel mixed emotions when I think about a liberated Cuban future.
Favorite Things on the Interwebs Today
Hilarious…and uplifting to see inflation awareness weaving itself into the mainstream.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $53k - $58k
Today: $55k - $60k
Tomorrow: $55k - $59k
After yesterday’s solid recovery, Bitcoin’s price has been coiling between $56.5k and $58k. There’s a solid chance that we see it push through $58k and reach as high as $60k today. The reaction to the historically difficult resistance at $60k will be telling. Either we push through in relatively short order and start searching for a new all-time high above $65k, or we reject soundly, likely leading to a retest of the $50k region. Either way, the consolidation in this region continues to be bullish. It’s also worth reminding folks that $54k is the price where Bitcoin becomes a $1T asset. It is not a shock that we have spent 12 weeks traversing this region. The next $1T will come much quicker than the first!
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: Should I buy anything other than Bitcoin?
A: Not recommended.
We are at the phase in the four-year crypto market cycle where alternative cryptocurrencies perform well. It is tempting to chase those profits, but the history of profit chasing does not end well for most people. Historically, the window of opportunity has been relatively short — typically not more than a few months. Afterward, the drawdowns are more than 80%. Without the ability to practice strict risk management and profit-taking, most people wind up losing more than they invest.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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