Daily Ramble
Yesterday’s Ramble brought in a host of comments—I loved it! The majority of the comments were supportive of my view, as I would suspect. Most of us like to be agreeable, so it’s a rare bird that writes something in opposition. Being in opposition takes more energy than going with the flow, after all. So it was pretty interesting to come across this idea that Zuby shared yesterday on Twitter. I hadn’t considered it from this angle, but it struck me as a “well, duh” type of insight once I read it. Nail meet hammer, hammer meet nail.
I don’t think of myself as terribly neurotic, nor am I the most agreeable person — probably self-evident if you’ve been reading my Rambles for any length of time. What I’m not saying is that either agreeableness or neuroticism are good or bad personality traits. They just are. If you’re being triggered by thinking I’m calling you either, please don’t. Just reflect on your experience and see if it lines up with the reality Zuby is experiencing. It does for me.
Unfortunately, I believe the majority of us fall into the more agreeable and neurotic camp than fall into the disagreeable and un-neurotic camp. Why? Because, if disagreeable folks were in charge, the lockdowns would be ending by now, as would the vaccine push. I cannot find data to justify either. Especially not with highly effective, low-cost treatments available.
Speaking of data, there’s a new wave of fear gripping society, leading to places like New Zealand and the US to start suggesting forced vaccinations. Why? The Delta variant boogeyman. The fear-mongering is hitting over-drive as the rate of COVID cases sky-rockets. But is it? And is it leading to more deaths? Let’s turn to doctor Faheem Yonus out of the UK, where Mr. Delta first made its unpopular debut. However, I don’t understand why he encourages vaccination when his own data shows it to be unnecessary.
So, in England, where the Delta virus has been the longest, the deaths aren’t increasing, but the cases are. Let’s not forget that the majority of the people who are now dying from the Delta variant are vaccinated, according to the UK’s Guardian.
Locally, if you are hearing the drumbeat of Delta-variant fear cranking up to 11 on the 1 to 10 scale, and you think the cure is to appease friends and family by being vaccinated, just know that being disagreeable is an option. A virus arising out of the common cold family becoming less deadly but more infectious doesn’t seem like a stretch. I mean, I’m not a virus to know how viruses see the world, but it’d make good sense to tone it down and optimize for spreading if I were. Pesky evolution —so annoying when critters adapt and change from the mental box we’d placed them inside…
Things That Make Me Feel Small on the Interweb
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $34k - $36k
Today: $30.7k-$33.6k
Tomorrow: $28.8k - $33.6k
Bitcoin has made its decision…and the bears have it. The coiling price action came to its conclusion shortly after the daily close. The price broke down to $32k, where it is attempting to pivot. While this could be a fake break, I anticipate this is the beginning of the next leg down in our trend, likely to put us below $30k by week’s end. The bulls need to get the price back up and over $33.6k soon to reverse the trend. I do suspect we’ll get a bounce in the $30.7k area, but I don’t anticipate it’ll lead to a bullish continuation. A break of the current low at $28.8k is likely to lead to a capitulation event where the price could cascade as low as $20k in a hurry. Ultimately this would be the best for Bitcoin to get a swift capitulation rather than a slow grind down. Let’s see what happens by week’s end, but the situation is not looking great for bulls.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: What can a Bitcoin node do?
A: Validate blocks and send transactions.
A Bitcoin node’s single most important purpose is to enforce the rules of the Bitcoin protocol. It does this by receiving each new block, validating the protocol’s rules were followed, then appending the block to the locally stored copy of the Bitcoin blockchain. The Bitcoin node also has a wallet function allowing the node's owner to send transactions to the network without censorship.
(Although I wrote about this yesterday, there’s enough confusion around the topic that I wanted to address it again a different way.)
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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So... are you saying the Delta variant could be classified as a parasite? A parasite knows better than to destroy its host.