Flying Solo
Daily Ramble
We’re already 4 days into 2021 and I’m already flying solo. Technically, that’s my wife, but metaphorically, that’s me. I’m holding down the home front these next two weeks while she flys across the Atlantic to work as a facilitator at Soltara, an ayahuasca retreat center in Costa Rica.
Ayhuasca retreat center? Facilitator? I can see question mark clouds floating over most of my readers’ heads…let me explain. Ayahuasca is a plant medicine from the Amazonian rainforest that’s been used for up to 5000 years. It’s hard to know exactly how long since Amazonian history is oral, but the use of ayahuasca is arguably the longest healing tradition on the planet. Confusingly, ayahuasca is both a vine and a medicinal brew, the brew being made of the ayahuasca vine and the leaves from the chacruna plant. The mixture is drunk in a ritualistic setting within round wooden huts, called molokas, where the curanderos (shamans), activate the psychoactive medicine through song. Sounds irrational? It is — I like to think of it as spiritual technology.
For the next two weeks, Ana will act as a facilitator for clients who have come to experience ayahuasca and its healing potential. Part translator, therapist, and emergency services, a facilitator’s role is to ensure the English-speaking clients’ intentions and experiences are translated to the curanderos, provide a safe space during the ceremonies, and to offer a compassionate listening ear after. It’s long, exhausting work, but highly rewarding and intimate to see people transform through the experience.
Though Ana and I will both be flying solo these next two weeks, monkey videos for Naia will be the glue that keeps us together. Naia loves monkeys, Costa Rica has plenty and technology will give us the excuse to stay connected. What a wild ride this life is, huh?
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
Bitcoin did it — front page of the Financial Times!
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Since Dec 31: $24k - $32k
Today: $27.5k - $33.7k
Tomorrow: $25.8k - $33.7k
Boy, was I off base on my last price prediction on New Year’s Eve. The bulls absolutely dominated the market sending price up to almost $35k, which was almost $3000 higher than I anticipated. Fears of missing out were running wild as I got frantic calls from no-coiners looking to get into the market for the first time. I could feel the euphoric animal spirits taking over and it could easily be seen in the leveraged markets that the bulls were getting out of their skiis a bit too far. So it wasn’t shocking to see a smash down by the bears today, sending prices shooting as low as $27.5k for almost a 20% pullback from the $35k high. There’s a chance this is the extent of the pullback, but the bulls continue to over-leverage themselves, so I’m suspicious there’s another leg down in store for us before a local bottom is found.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Deflation. Let’s go there again. Bitcoin has a deflationary monetary policy built-in. And a deflationary monetary policy scares most people because there’s not a person alive in the western world that has lived under one — fear of the unknown is a powerful force.
But is it really unknown? Not really, it’s just happened far enough in the past that economic records are sparse — but do exist! Here’s a quote from the article I linked to previously discussing one of the few deflationary periods in US history.
Interestingly enough, one of the longest and most prosperous periods for the U.S. economy included the 35 years in-between 1865 and 1900. During this time, things really took off. Not only did GDP increase fourfold and real wages rise over 23%, but prices of general goods and services decreased by nearly half.
The article is worth a deeper dive to understand the nuance, but the point remains: question the premise that we need an inflationary economy and you may just discover that you’re being spun a yarn.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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