Daily Ramble
There’s a funeral happening today. I promised not to change anything about my newsletter until Monday, and I will stay true to that promise, but I’m announcing today that there’s a passing of the guard. The “Interesting Things on the Interwebs” is being scuttled. I don’t know if something will replace it, but in all the thirty-some-odd comments I received, there was only one positive mention for it. So, what started as a lark will be hitting the dustbin of Kent Corner's history. I wish it were going out in style with something absurdly humorous, but I’ve not come across such a thing in my web surfing today, so instead, you’re getting a quick COVID story I pieced together from several apropos tweets. So, hat’s off, please, for a moment of silence.
.
.
.
Thank you. But enough with the drama, let’s talk today about how gold is not Bitcoin. An older gold bug neighbor stopped by today, and we chatted about a wide range of topics familiar to Bitcoiners. I left the conversation feeling bad for him, but not in the way of his making bad decisions or doing anything stupid, but just for the timing of his life on planet earth. The gold bugs really held the flag high for the sound money principles that Bitcoiners have wrapped themselves around, but they missed the boat on timing. See, the typical gold bug has held the staunch view that gold will right the wrongs of the overspending, inflationary governments of the world for such a long period of time that they’ve aged into a demographic that struggles with technology. And you’ve got to have an iota of tech in your blood to manage Bitcoin today.
It’s not that Bitcoin won’t continue to become more user-friendly. But if a gold bug wants to start dumping some gold to gain the advantages Bitcoin offers, namely supply transparency and portability, the route to acquire Bitcoin is digitally intuitive, and outside the analog comfort zone they’ve known their entire lives. Wire money to an exchange, purchase Bitcoin, withdraw it to a wallet, and manage the wallet, knowing that errors can result in the full loss of the Bitcoin. That’s a scary prospect for 70+-year-old folks who are used to ringing the precious metals dealer they’ve known the last 20 years to arrange a transaction.
I don’t think there’s an obvious solution to this, but I do know that a Bitcoin ETF, which the SEC seems to be hinting at approving in the next couple of months, is likely to get a lot of traction in the gold bug community. The idea of calling a stockbroker to make a stock purchase is as understandable as the call to the gold dealer and will result in many of them purchasing shares of a Bitcoin ETF, I believe. Unfortunately, it still doesn’t offer any of these gold bugs the ability to transport their Bitcoin anywhere they’d like, which is one of the primary advantages of Bitcoin over gold. Instead, I perceive that there will be a thriving enterprise for small custody providers. Outsourcing the fiddly hardware wallet management to younger members of their trusted circle will likely become how the gold bugs gain the advantages of Bitcoin while avoiding the challenge of learning new technology.
After all, ringing a nephew to arrange a Bitcoin transaction is not so different from the call to the precious metals dealer.
Eye-Popping COVID Things on the Interwebs
At least for the last 7 days in Scotland, the unvaccinated seem to be faring better than the vaccinated. Unbelievable!
And in the UK, there’s an abnormal amount of people having heart problems and passing out. My mind is making a connection I hope is wrong….
Meanwhile, the US Press Secretary confirms that mandatory vaccinations are coming for large private employers in the US.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $44.4k - $47.4k
Today: $45.5k - $47.4k
Tomorrow: $44.4k - $49.3k
Bitcoin’s price has continued to consolidate after the massive $10k breakdown two days ago. Not surprising in the least. The bulls and bears are duking it out for dominance right now as the price continues to trade in a tighter and tighter range. I continue to believe we’ll see a break of this temporary range to the upside for a test of $49.3k before the market decides if we’re heading up to $53k again or down to test $42k again. The fact that the bulls have absorbed the selling pressure from the bears thus far means that a break down to $42k does not seem likely, but continues to be possible. The next 48 hours should give us better insight into the situation.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: How is the rollout of Bitcoin progressing in El Salvador?
A: Pretty bloody well.
My Twitter feed is biased, but these two tweets highlight what winning with Bitcoin looks like.
El Salvador bringing $400M back into the country by cutting out Western Union — winning!
Buying Starbucks in El Salvador with no fees for either the customer or Starbucks — winning!
Do you have questions or a “Rad Thing on the Interwebs”? Leave a comment or reply to the newsletter to reach me.
Me? I offer personal and corporate Bitcoin Implementation Strategies: custody, investing strategy, security, tax management, and inheritance. Contact me for a free initial consultation.
Gold Bugs
Hi Kent.
Short of time today (you may be glad to hear lol), but my take on the Scottish data Covid plot is:
- It’s a low number of deaths in comparison to where we were – which is great news.
- It’s a low number of deaths which means that the influence of random events is much higher. For example you could have one event where the people at a vaccine centre were given dud vaccine and that is suddenly seen as significant signal in low numbers.
- We'd absolutely need it broken down by age / additional health conditions. There’s going to be a bias, those who are double vaccinated are probably older or compromised, and consequently more at risk.
- At the time of writing, 68.7% of the population of Scotland is fully vaccinated, that in itself is a large bias.
- And then there’s the bias of selection – and this is a big issue in our algorithmically driven media world. If this data wasn’t showing something which seemed at odds to "the narrative", would it have even appeared in your feed? I’ve not looked but perhaps there’s weeks of data appearing to show an opposite picture – has that appeared in your feed as well?
Regarding the second plot, I can’t see any significant effect there, and she doesn’t express a theory. I’m glad she’s being vigilant though. I honestly would need to spend time analysing it, but to the eye I’m not sure what it’s showing.
So, I’m still not buying that the vaccine is doing more harm than good. And knowing the stats bods here in this country (I’m including Scotland in this), I’m (mantra coming) comfortable in the knowledge that a significant signal showing that the vaccine was not having the intended effect would set off alarm bells at all levels of government and healthcare.
Our government is pressing on with vaccinating the young, and against medical advice – typical of the idiots we have in charge. They should not be doing this, the stats start to change drastically in the lower age groups. The vaccines can be seen to have not insignificant problems as you drop into the lower age ranges of 15 and below. Unfortunately, I also think that that effect will feed into general population numbers and skew the data, and thus produce more backlash against vaccine usage in much more vulnerable age groups. So personally, as mentioned, currently I feel that the vaccine does a whole heap more good than harm, but I feel that that may tip in the harm direction more here because of this.
Re: Biden, mandating vaccine … another time. Not a great move imo. The alternative is weekly tests – I hope the government there are going to pay for them. Argh, will certainly be watching in the longer term what happens. I’m not entirely un-libertarian – just saying. Cheers.
I will miss rad things on the "interwebs"! I have to say that I do enjoy your picks!