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Sep 10, 2021Liked by Kent Halliburton

Hi Kent.

Short of time today (you may be glad to hear lol), but my take on the Scottish data Covid plot is:

- It’s a low number of deaths in comparison to where we were – which is great news.

- It’s a low number of deaths which means that the influence of random events is much higher. For example you could have one event where the people at a vaccine centre were given dud vaccine and that is suddenly seen as significant signal in low numbers.

- We'd absolutely need it broken down by age / additional health conditions. There’s going to be a bias, those who are double vaccinated are probably older or compromised, and consequently more at risk.

- At the time of writing, 68.7% of the population of Scotland is fully vaccinated, that in itself is a large bias.

- And then there’s the bias of selection – and this is a big issue in our algorithmically driven media world. If this data wasn’t showing something which seemed at odds to "the narrative", would it have even appeared in your feed? I’ve not looked but perhaps there’s weeks of data appearing to show an opposite picture – has that appeared in your feed as well?

Regarding the second plot, I can’t see any significant effect there, and she doesn’t express a theory. I’m glad she’s being vigilant though. I honestly would need to spend time analysing it, but to the eye I’m not sure what it’s showing.

So, I’m still not buying that the vaccine is doing more harm than good. And knowing the stats bods here in this country (I’m including Scotland in this), I’m (mantra coming) comfortable in the knowledge that a significant signal showing that the vaccine was not having the intended effect would set off alarm bells at all levels of government and healthcare.

Our government is pressing on with vaccinating the young, and against medical advice – typical of the idiots we have in charge. They should not be doing this, the stats start to change drastically in the lower age groups. The vaccines can be seen to have not insignificant problems as you drop into the lower age ranges of 15 and below. Unfortunately, I also think that that effect will feed into general population numbers and skew the data, and thus produce more backlash against vaccine usage in much more vulnerable age groups. So personally, as mentioned, currently I feel that the vaccine does a whole heap more good than harm, but I feel that that may tip in the harm direction more here because of this.

Re: Biden, mandating vaccine … another time. Not a great move imo. The alternative is weekly tests – I hope the government there are going to pay for them. Argh, will certainly be watching in the longer term what happens. I’m not entirely un-libertarian – just saying. Cheers.

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Sep 10, 2021Liked by Kent Halliburton

I will miss rad things on the "interwebs"! I have to say that I do enjoy your picks!

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