Daily Ramble
There are days when I look out my office window and realize just how lucky I am. Today is one.
The photo is horrid quality, but it gives the idea of the mountain scene I observe each day. Moments ago, the clouds were just lifting off the Serra de Sintra showing the Palácio de Monserrate’s hiding place. The Palácio rests on a knoll in the mountainscape just past my neighbor’s rooftops. Surrounded by exotic plants from across the planet, goldfish swim in the pools at its fairy tale entrance. Do I really live in such a mystical place? I have to pinch myself sometimes. It’s hard to remember how incredible this place is when the day to day realities of living the family life intrude on my sense of gratitude. Everything seems to normalize after enough time. Normalizing our surroundings is either a blessing or a cursed superpower of humanity, situation dependent.
Recently, I’ve been focusing on reviving my sense of gratitude through my daughter’s eyes. We started a new, daily “what are you thankful for today?” game after her bedtime stories. At 2.5 years old, I’ve been quite surprised at how well she gets it. It’s simple things, like “Sasha” (our dog), “mimi’s” (kids), “brincadeiros” (toys), “pagump” (grandpa), “gammy” (grandma). But invariably, she lights up when recalling these treasured memories in her day and the excitement is infectious. I tell her the moments in my day that I appreciated and tuck her into bed with at least six stuffed animals and two wooden toys.
It’s a great routine I hope neither of us outgrows.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
Proof that monkeys make better ninja warriors.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $42.8k - $50k
Today: $43.8k - $48.4k
Tomorrow: $40.9k - $50k
The market is on the second day of catching its breath while digesting the news of Tesla buying $1.5B of Bitcoin. That means the price has traded within a narrow range from $45.1k to $48.3k. It’s incredible to think that a $1000 move is now about 2% of the price of Bitcoin. Just last year, at the low, a $1000 move was over 30%!
What I’m looking for today is a likely drop in price to as low as $41k to find new buyers and enthusiasm to propel the price up to $50k. If the price drop doesn’t find buyers, then we may need to pull back as much as $38k to find them. What I can’t imagine happening at this point is a serious retracement. The amount of bitcoin on exchanges continues to drop while it’s all but certain more corporations are looking to swap some dollars for bitcoin on their balance sheets. Tough to get bearish.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Q: Is the current Bitcoin market cycle a supercycle?
A: I don’t know.
I can’t know until, like everyone else, I can see the price action of the next two years in the rearview mirror. I’ve considered the idea quite a bit and believe, at this point, that the odds are in the single digits. That’s up from less than 1% though. If this were a super-cycle, it would mean hyperbitcoinization is happening. My technical line in the sand for such an event would be if the price of Bitcoin were to exceed $1M per Bitcoin before a bear cycle. That would make the network worth $21T (trillion) and I believe Bitcoin will have exceeded the escape velocity of state actors who will inevitably try to tame it.
Adding $20T to the network before a bear cycle seems like a bridge too far, hence the single-digit odds. Much more likely is that we peak somewhere in the $100k-$300k region by December and then experience another 80% price decline.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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It's quite the honor to be on your daughter's gratitude list. I'm humbled.