Groundhog Day
Daily Ramble
Does anyone else feel like they’re trapped in Groundhog Day? The combination of winter grey skies and the heavy vibe of being in a culture in fear and lockdown is probably to blame for my state of mind. Looking out my office window, I honestly couldn’t tell what day of the week or month it is. The days seem to slide into one another like the cascading of a creek over stones.
Speaking of time, on my morning dog walk, I was thinking how time is the factor that most of us miss when it comes to nuance. Let me explain through an example: when people are asked a simple question like “is Bitcoin money?” the answer is usually “yes” or “no” followed by justification. I can’t hear a question like that without asking myself “when?” Without adding time to the equation, the answer is based on what Bitcoin is right now. For me, for better and worse, I think of my response between now and the furthest time horizon I can imagine then answer something like: “now? no. but it’s likely to become it in the future” followed by my justification.
Without the ingredient of time, possibilities unravel into what’s existing right now. But it’s really not how life works. Things change over time. That bottle of wine doesn’t taste great now, but give it 10 years. You may be able to run a marathon at 20 but at 60, odds are against it. Your life circumstances may be tough now but maybe not in the future. What’s empowering about adding time to considerations is that a spiraling set of possible realities unfolds in front of you. It’s not that I can know that something will occur in the future, but I can consider different outcomes allowing me to be somewhat prepared. And if you want to see how that works in action, watch Bill Murray take on Groundhog’s Day again.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
Chamath gets it — the internet has leveled the playing field against Wall Street. If I still lived in California, he’d get my vote for Governor. [note: the original link I posted was removed by CNBC… 🤨]
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $28.5k - $32k
Today: $27.2k - $33k
Tomorrow: $26k-$36k
Bitcoin is continuing to trade in a place of indecision. In hindsight, this will clearly look like either accumulation or distribution, but at the moment, it’s still marginally better than a coinflip. Marginally? Yes, at the moment, the bulls have a slight edge having held the absolute range low by fending off the bears since yesterday when the price dropped as low as $29.2k. The price is currently at $31.5k with the bulls stretching to keep the newfound momentum…but it’s a dogfight. We need to see the price decisively clear $33k for a day and hold before we can consider the bottom locked into place. Assuming that happens, the $29k-$33k region will become major support later in the cycle. On the bearish side, another test of the $30k range low is not likely to hold given how many times it’s been slammed and could see price stretch down to $26k before finding a hold.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Q: How do I safely store my Bitcoin wallet’s seed phrase?
First a quick review: A seed phrase is a set of 12 or 24 words that allows access to a Bitcoin private key. The private key proves ownership of the bitcoin in the wallet and allows for their transfer.
A: In a safe place.
Ok, that’s entirely not helpful but 100% true. I’ll get into the practical, but first, recognize that the seed phrase is more important than the wallet — you can lose the wallet, but the seed phrase being gone means there’s no way to re-create the wallet. The seed phrase is the part of the Bitcoin game where everyone straps on their adult shoes and takes responsibility or suffers the consequences.
Practically, the value of the Bitcoin stored in the wallet weighs into management. If you’ve got less than $100k in value, I recommend keeping the seed phrase on a piece of paper locked in a vault. If you’ve got more than $100k in bitcoin, then I’d recommend putting the seed phrase on a CryptoTag locked inside a bank’s safety deposit box. The device is steel and able to manage any type of abuse without losing access to the passphrase.
Most importantly, do not leave your seed phrase in an obvious to access location: sitting on your desk, in a file on your computer, or saved on Google Drive.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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