Health
Daily Ramble
I recently learned that Portugal had become the only country in the EU that has the privilege of not needing quarantine to enter other EU nations. That was refreshing news. Of course, the recent lockdowns have been pointed to as the reason for Portugal's success. That’s quite plausible.
But I suspect it has more to do with the change in weather. Why? Because the weather starts transitioning mid-March through May. The cold days start with the upper hand, but eventually, the warm days take the lead until we stop thinking in spring and think in summer. The warm days aren’t the direct cause of reducing COVID cases, but they do get people out of their homes and into the fresh air and sunlight. Now THAT is a game-changer. It’s become pretty clear that vitamin D, which our bodies produce from sunlight, has been a big factor in preventing COVID infections. Vitamin D levels rotate from deficient to satisfactory in the population, and wah-la, COVID goes away!
Ok, maybe I’m a bit naive on this, but let me add a couple of facts to justify my thinking. First, Portugal is one of the first countries in the EU to warm up after winter. It’s a matter of latitude on the continent. The sun has a bigger and longer impact on Portugal than most of the EU. If my suggestion is right, the COVID data from southern Spain, southern Italy, and Greece should all be similar about now. Except, there’s one bit of information about Portugal that’s potentially unique: homes are incredibly cold during the winter. People literally put on their jackets as they walk indoors on wintery days. Why does this matter? Because cold homes drive people outdoors on the scantiest suspicion of sun. Portuguese lizards and nationals are hard to tell apart on sunny days…
All this jibber-jabber is to say that it grates me how obsessed, despite the data, we’ve become with an invisible entity that has minimal impact on the healthy. Instead of focusing on being healthy humans, we’re running hard at being unhealthy: trapped indoors without human contact while the media pipes in a steady stream of fear. I will not be surprised if history looks at our actions over the last few years as pretty backward, if not downright cowardly.
Oh, and if you do want to be civil and stop hiding behind a mask, a study of 6000 people over 30 days in Denmark found that there’s no difference between wearing a mask and not.
Favorite Things on the Interwebs Today
Bitcoin nerd humor. See the Bitcoin Q & A below.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $55k - $60k
Today: $55k - $59k
Weekend: $50k - $61k
There’s not much to add to the price action dialogue today. The price of Bitcoin has ping-ponged between $55.3k and $58.5k in the last 36 hours. That looks set to continue. If it can somehow manage to break above $58k and hold, then we’ll likely see more upside to the fateful $60k area that’s been a serious challenge for the bulls to hold. On the flip side, if the bears can push through $53k, there’s a good chance we’re running back to $50k before finding a floor—long story short: more bullish consolidation.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: What is a “clean block”?
A: A Bitcoin miner attempting to follow the OFAC guidelines on United States sanctions.
To “follow the law,” Marathon, a Bitcoin mining company, piloted a way to ensure they were mining bitcoin that was untainted by bitcoin from sanctioned countries. Although all bitcoin are equal, some in the marketplace believe the origins of a bitcoin and its history can make a bitcoin “unclean,” and therefore worth less.
The logic: a $100 bill coming directly from the Federal Reserve is more valuable than from a merchant. The $100 bill from the FED would be worth more because it hasn’t been potentially tainted by corrupt use. To prove the ridiculousness of the logic, after Marathon mined this “clean block,” a Bitcoiner from a US sanctioned country sent a small amount of bitcoin to the wallet address of the “clean” bitcoin. Now it’s all tainted.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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