Letter
Daily Ramble
I’m a month late in doing it, but I finally took the time to write to my daughter for her birthday. See, I got a great gift from my mother when Naia was born: Letters to You. It’s a birthday book with lots of open space and delightful prompts for topics to write about each year of your child’s life. The idea is to capture highlight moments and experiences as she grows up, then when she’s ready to move on with her life, I can give it to her—something like a time capsule whose true value won’t be known for nearly 20 years.
But because I was in Miami for the Bitcoin 2021 conference on her birthday, I haven’t taken the time to sit down and write. As a result, I found the process much different this year. I wrote on her birthday the first two times when I was already in a sentimental state of mind thinking about her arrival in our lives and its impact. This year, I’ve let nearly a month slide while the book has gathered dust on my desk. I knew if I didn’t tackle it soon, the weight of not doing it would become a force of gravity too difficult to overcome.
Yesterday, I was jogged out of my daily routine by the passing of a not-so-close friend. Death has an uncanny way of bringing priorities into focus — it helped me realize that writing to my daughter for her birthday couldn’t wait. I found the right mindset this morning by meditating then heading to the beach for a run along the cliff tops. It worked. As I sat in the morning sun, flipping through photos from the last year, the memories of the experiences Naia, my wife, and I lived came flooding back. I did my best to wrestle them down with my pen, but it’ll be at least 15 more years before my audience decides if I won the wrestling match or not.
Maybe it’s just me, but the word nostalgia doesn’t seem to capture the emotional intertwining of joy and sadness I felt when considering these memories. While I hope there’s a new word coined that’s a better fit, whether it’s memories or people passing from our lives, Doctor Suess’ misattributed quote seems to capture it best:
Don’t cry because it’s over, but smile because it happened.
Contradictory Things Said on the Interwebs
Have you, too, been duped by the god we call Science that doesn’t follow the scientific method but demands unquestioning allegiance?
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $32.9k - $36.1k
Today: $31.4k - $35k
Tomorrow: $28k - $35k
Looking at the daily price charts, Bitcoin’s price action is growing increasingly complicated. All but the $30k floor is holding the daily chart from a collapse down into the $20k-$30k region. Yesterday, the bulls did close above $34.5k, but they could not hold it today. Price is currently trading below $33k, and it would be quite the feat to see $34.5k recovered today. Possible, but unlikely. So, as I mentioned yesterday, that increases the odds of Bitcoin testing the lows again. Specifically, the price will need to hold above $28.9k, or the risks of a capitulation event become possible again. All is not lost for the bulls, though. A daily close above $32.2k today keeps the potential for a reversal still on the table, though the odds are diminishing that it’ll happen before we drop down a level into the $20k-$30k region.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: What is the difference between Bitcoin’s first layer and second layer?
A: The difference is scalability.
Bitcoin’s first layer was built to prioritize decentralization and security above all else. That led to the design decision of blocks every 10 minutes, allowing up to 2500 transactions through, or 4.16 transactions per second. Not nearly enough to support a planet with 8 billion people. Layer 2 solutions are built on top of the first layer and utilize the security of Bitcoin but allow an almost unlimited number of transactions to occur before settling back to the first layer.
The best analogy is to think of Bitcoin’s baselayer like Central Banks interacting to settle payments with one another. Bitcoin’s second layers act like commercial banks that make tens of thousands of transactions to their clients and settle transactions with the Central Bank every so often.
The first 30 minutes of this conversation on Pomp’s podcast with Edan Yago is a great place to understand these concepts better.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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