Daily Ramble
Portugal entered a month-long pandemic lockdown last week. Apparently, it wasn’t restrictive enough so now the lockdown is leveling-up. There are threats of penalties for not complying with the regulations and one of the sacred cows of Portugal has even been threatened — cafes can’t serve coffee. Not even to-go cups.
Wine, tobacco, wheat, and coffee. These are sacred cows in a culture that reveres food to the point of sailing the world in search of spices. It’s not just that coffee (a 100mL/1 oz espresso served in a tiny cup on a saucer with a matching spoon and sugar packet) is the beverage that fuels society, but it’s also a euphemism for getting together. It took me a while to realize that when someone invited me for a coffee, it was an excuse to meet at a cafe and talk. With that taken away, the growling populace is sure to take it as the first shot across the bow at liberties being stolen.
Where do I stand with these lockdowns? I welcomed them the first time, now nearly a year ago, but with everything we’ve learned about the COVID boys, the only sensible thing I can see is to lock down people who are at risk and let the rest of society function. There are cases of otherwise healthy individuals being absolutely debilitated from COVID, but these are the exceptions and not the rule. And it’s hypothesized that it’s caused by a genetic disposition, which scientists are rushing to identify. I suspect it's these healthy lads and lasses torn down by COVID that causes society to reel more than anything.
I don’t know where this is going, but if the Spanish Flu, our last major pandemic, is any indication, this will play itself out. We’re at the peak of the second wave right now and we’ll probably have another mini-wave next winter. But after, we should be able to operate again without having our mortal fear button pushed. You’d have to be a sadist not to want that to happen sooner than later.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
The US transition of power successfully happened yesterday and Amanda Gorman’s debut poem as the first National Poet Laureate captured the spirit of promise the moment holds. Got my fingers crossed for you, USA…
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $32k - $36.5k
Today: $30k - $35.6k
Tomorrow: $28k - $33k
The slight twist from yesterday, the bears having the upper hand, has turned into a full scale drubbing by the bears. We did stay within the predicted range yesterday, but the party got in full gear today during the Asian session — we’ve already since price print at $31k with more downside probable. In a bull market it makes sense to buy the dips — only wait until there’s confirmation before doing so. Right now, that confirmation doesn’t exist. We could see as low as $30k today, and tomorrow, as low as $28k. If you don’t own any Bitcoin and have been waiting for a time to buy some, at the range bottom, this is a decent place to buy, but keep some dry powder in case we slide further. Unless we have more than a 40% pullback, putting price into the $25k region, this is all quite normal for a Bitcoin bull market.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Q: Won’t a more stable President reduce demand for Bitcoin?
A: Doubtful.
Doubtful, because, although a more traditional US President will calm the markets, what is driving Bitcoin’s price is the fear of inflation caused by printing an absurd amount of money to bouoy the economy. The drivers for the money printing are not changing with a new US President. The US economy is in tatters from the pandemic and the go-to tool for politicians is to print money to get out of it. The difference between Presidents is how that flow of money is directed, but either way, as it seeps into the economy, the prices of goods and services increases because of the inflated money supply.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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