Looking Back
Daily Ramble
Today feels like a good day to come clean. Not that I’ve been dirty, but I’m three months into my journey as a novice writer of a daily newsletter and it feels like a good day to look back. I’ve picked up 40 email subscribers and, depending on the day, 50-70% of the emails get opened.
What to make of the stats? First, I’m surprised between 20 - 30 people read what I write each weekday. Second, I’m lousy at self-promotion. I post my newsletter on both Facebook and Twitter daily, but I know the algos running the feeds dislike me since it’s my only activity — that means my posts are relegated to the dustbin. Third, I’m impressed with myself for keeping up a habit that takes 1-2 hours, five times per week, for three months. It forces me to admit to myself that I’m enjoying the habit. Either that or I’m an utter masochist. (Don’t answer that, Ana.)
Writing is a unique process that forces seemingly clear ideas floating in my mind to survive the light of day on the screen, something like translating a dream into reality. I’m noticing that the thought-to-words “muscle” is getting stronger and the words flow more easily. The pump has been primed. And it’s not just the translation that’s smoothing out, but the fact that I’m recognizing day-to-day thoughts worth writing during my down moments. But enough of the therapist couch talk.
Let’s get to the punchline already, yeah? The format feels settled and the side-channel feedback to discuss the ideas I’m putting out there has been coming in steadily. The time feels right to move outside of the friends and family zone to address a larger audience. So I’m just going to put it out there since my self-promotion is terrible: if you’re enjoying what I write and know someone else that would too, give this a share or sign someone up. They can always unsubscribe.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
True words said by a Nigerian politician — and the reason Bitcoin keeps going up in price as fiat currencies lose value. Nigeria just banned cryptocurrency. The youths on the street blinked, then went back to work.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $42.8k - $50k
Today: $43.7k - $50k
Weekend: $44k - $54k
Bitcoin’s price is hanging in space. Floating in a relatively tight range from $44k to $49k coming into day four. We’re one piece of news away from popping up into the $50k zone or down into the low $40k range again it seems. There’s really not much to say about the price action at the moment except that it will eventually choose a direction, likely over the weekend when the volume is lower, and we’ll get a look on Monday to see if a new short term trend has started. My expectation is we break up to at least $50k before seeing the price pullback much. And if not, I can’t see a pullback breaking through $40k anytime soon. The fundamentals and technicals are both too bullish. Let’s check back on Monday.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Q: What is the game theory of Bitcoin adoption?
A: Everyone owns Bitcoin in the end.
A gross oversimplification, but true. The “how does that happen?” is what trips up most people. It’s really quite simple: scarcity and greed. Like dominoes falling, we’re watching it play out in real-time with corporate executives. Starting six months ago, Michael Saylor made a big bet on purchasing bitcoin for his company MicroStrategy, which purchased $1.1B bitcoin (now worth $3.4B). Because Bitcoin is not a security, there’s no issue with marketing it to others which Michael Saylor has faithfully done, helping convert Elon Musk to Bitcoin. Elon’s Tesla just purchased $1.5B last week (in case you were sleeping under the porch). Elon is now promoting Bitcoin. Larry Ellison, executive chairman of Oracle, sits on Tesla’s board and helped approve the decision for Tesla. It’s likely Oracle will be next. Suddenly, if you’re a corporation holding any significant dollars on your balance sheet, you need to diversify into Bitcoin.
Why? Because there are only 21M Bitcoin and if you’re late to the party, you pay more because the available supply has been reduced. A fixed supply meets increasing demand and the price goes up. Game theory in action.
I am most excited to see how it plays out when the first Central Bank purchases Bitcoin. That’s the final set of dominoes.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
Got questions or a “Favorite Thing on the Interwebs”? Comment below or reply and drop me a line!
If you’re not on the email list, subscribe now — just this newsletter, no advertising.
Me? I offer personal and corporate Bitcoin Implementation Strategies: setup, investing strategy, security, tax management, and inheritance. Contact me for a free initial consult.