Lunatics
Daily Ramble
Lunatics. What makes ‘em? While it originally meant moonstruck — luna means moon —I tend to think of a lunatic as someone that lives in a reality apart from mine. It’s why we are often frightened of people that seem like lunatics because we cannot frame them into our reality. So if I sound like a lunatic to you for expressing the idea that Bitcoin can save humanity from itself, it’s because you’re living a separate reality from mine. That’s what I want to focus on today — why?
Religion. That’s THE why. Bitcoiners have often been accused of having a religious fervor about Bitcoin. And the accusers are 100% right. What the accusers miss is their own religious belief around the fiat currency they use. How do I know? Because I’ve experienced the visceral reaction people have when they first hear the words “Bitcoin is better than fiat.” The reaction by those who haven’t studied Bitcoin is either dismissive or outright hostile. Sound like one religion confronting another? But why? Because religion and money have a unifying characteristic: faith.
Faith, not in the belief of the supreme consciousness that manages the universe, but faith in the medium of exchange I use to store my value and price my goods and services. I have faith that it will continue to operate into the foreseeable future. And when the faith is shaken, just as when one religion confronts another’s faith, it leads to tribal skirmishes. That’s a lot of what I see playing out between the Bitcoin community and the default fiat world. It looks an awful lot like a clash between two religions. Only neither side believes it’s part of a religion. You know, because fiat — meaning by decree — doesn’t have religious aspects, just like Bitcoin doesn’t have religious aspects. Sure… 🙄
But here’s the good thing about religion that no one talks about: it provides a unifying worldview that allows the social fabric to grow. Jared Diamond introduced me to this concept in his seminal work, The World Until Yesterday. He uses his life as a cultural anthropologist studying indigenous cultures to compare modernity to tribal culture. It turns out that one of the primary functions of religion is to create a code of conduct and worldview that allows adherents to operate as peacefully with one another as is humanly possible. It’s not wrong to think of religion as a thought network that links everyone’s minds to orient society.
If you don’t think fiat and Bitcoin fit that last sentence, and can’t see why they naturally cause religious sparks to fly as they collide, then I’m sorry, you may be a lunatic…seriously.
Shocking Things on the Interwebs
Reminder: when comparing Bitcoin’s ESG footprint to the dollar, this lands on the dollar side of the scales.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $28.7k - $35.7k
Today: $24k - $33.2k
Tomorrow: $24k - $33.2k
(Mea culpa. Yesterday, I’d predicted the price would be between $24k-$25k. That should have read $24k-$35k)
The bears have absolutely taken charge of Bitcoin’s price action, driving the price down to $31k with strong potential of further selling today. We should anticipate buyers to step in below $30k, but if that’ll be enough to shift the trend back to bullish is an open debate. I’m skeptical. The way the price has been moving and the bearish news out of China seems to be a double whammy that will cause us to lose support. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my current analysis. That said, if $28k doesn’t hold, then $24k would be the next logical place for Bitcoin to try and find a floor. And if $28k doesn’t hold, then the last straw bulls have been grasping to keep the bull market alive is off the table. At least for several months.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: What happens to the Bitcoin mining equipment from mining operations China has shut down?
A: It is relocating.
It isn't easy to know exactly how much mining is being done in China, but analysts estimate 50% of the hashrate protecting the Bitcoin network is from China. That’s a tremendous amount of mining equipment. As China orders mining operations to shut, these mining organizations are either looking for options to relocate their organization or sell their mining equipment. Objectively, the world can watch the hashrate of the network drop, then rebound as the mining hardware relocates to less hostile regions on the planet.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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