Daily Ramble
There’s nothing like a double espresso followed by an hour of cold water surf to shift yesterday into today. Unfortunately, with a funding round closing for Sazmining, household duties, late-night interviews, and sleep training for Naia, sleep has been given short shrift. The barrier separating days has gotten thin enough to need some assistance.
Yesterday’s late-night interview was with Robert Breedlove, whose piercing observations about Bitcoin I’ve quoted in more than one Ramble. It still amazes me that two people 1/2 a planet apart — he’s in Hawaii and I’m in Portugal — can have a fluid conversation and record it for others to see. Yeah, I suppose that amazement means I’m getting older — Naia’s growing up thinking it’s normal. I owe a debt of gratitude to Toby and Heidi from Crypto Tips for helping make the conversation happen. They’ll edit and post the interview in the coming days, which I’ll be sure to share with my readers. In the meantime, some of the concepts Robert and I talked about have been ping-ponging between my ears.
One of the more interesting thoughts was learning the meaning behind the word “sound” for sound money. Historically, the sound of the coin being dropped gave the listener a simple way to assay the coin's purity. If it were gold-plated lead, it wouldn’t sound the same as a pure gold coin. The history of common daily phrases constantly surprises me. I suppose that’s not surprising given my enjoyment of the use of words in communication.
But a deeper thought that Robert brought up was in my response to whether Bitcoin represented something greater than money. My question had to do with the idea that Bitcoin is creating a synchronization mechanism for humanity in an era where institutions are declining. A digital, decentralized institution functioning trustlessly that unironically bolsters societal trust. It just keeps doing its thing — pumping out blocks of transactions every 10 minutes with a 100% constrained supply of Bitcoin — no matter what any individual or group throws at the network. Those that take the time to learn Bitcoin wind up with a common worldview and set of values that set up the potential for a social fabric to be created with Bitcoin in the center, synchronizing society. In response to this idea, Robert suggested that yes, either Bitcoin was greater than money or money itself is more than we have realized. I admit I had trouble focusing for the next few moments as the idea of money exponentially grew through my neuropathways like a lightning bolt.
I’m still mulling over the idea that money is bigger than I’d given it credit. But if you like this idea and have become fascinated by the question “what is money?” you’d be hard-pressed to find a better resource than Robert’s podcast/youtube series. Who knows, you might start to see the world a bit differently if you stay curious and intellectually honest about the answers that come.
Refreshing Things on the Interweb
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $36.4k - $39.3k
Today: $37.2k - $42k
Tomorrow: $37.2k - $45k
The bulls have continued to keep their foot on the bears’ neck as they bid the market into the $40k territory as I type these words. It’s been a stellar rise in a little more than a week as we push into the top of the range initially set by a breakdown on May 19th. However, it’s an area where I am becoming increasingly cautious. If we broke directly through $42k, the top of the range, I would be surprised but delighted. It’s just the type of place where bears would likely put up a strong defense. And indeed, we have seen incredible inflows in a couple of exchanges in the last 24 hours. Inflows are larger than anything I have seen to date. There may be many reasons why this occurred that have nothing to do with bearish price action, but I’m cautious here and will gladly wait to confirm a break above $42k before continuing my bullish bias. If the bears do have the appetite to drive the price down from the range high, we want to see the bulls defend $36.5k by the end of the week or risk returning to the low $30ks.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: Is Bitcoin sound money?
A: Metaphorically, yes.
Sound was historically used as a simple way to determine a coin’s quality. But since Bitcoin is digital, its purity can’t be tested using sound. But the term sound money has morphed into meaning a form of money not subject to large inflationary or disinflationary force. Meaning the supply is relatively stable. With Bitcoin, there has never been a form of money whose supply has been more transparently and securely stable. That makes Bitcoin the soundest money on the planet.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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Please explain what you mean by using the term 'inflows to' or 'outflows from' exchanges. What do those movements in the system mean?