Nostalgia
Sunday Ramble
Before we get into it today, some housekeeping: you may notice that there’s a big blue share button above. That’s an experiment. I briefly looked at my newsletter stats and realized that 95%+ readers get here by email. So, I added the Share button, being vain enough to think my words are worth reaching more readers. Social media posting doesn’t seem to do much. Share away if I’m right. Ignore otherwise. Carrying on…
We’re in a weird season here in the jungle. The locals claim there’s no such thing as a “rainy season,” but the gringos living here swear by it. All I know is that the last two nights have been stupendously and obnoxiously buggy as the jungle air stagnates. The days have become sullen and grey and filled with solid, branch-breaking breezes. It feels as if we’re on the cusp of some significant weather change, but since the locals seem to think it’s all the same, all the time, I’m deferring to them. But if we get stuck in our compound with flash flooding in the weeks ahead, I’m going to give the points to the gringos for acknowledging the rainy season’s existence.
Speaking of seasons, I bit off chunks of Adam Sandler’s Sandy Wexler film over the last few days. Released in 2017, it’s a typical goofy and feel-good Adam Sandler romance flick. It’s staged in Hollywood with a cast of actors that anyone growing up in the 90s would instantly recognize. While there’s nothing particularly stunning about the film — I did chortle a few times — it had me waxing nostalgic for the 90s. And that nostalgic reaction has me curious about myself: am I wearing rose-tinted glasses, or was it a better time?
Objectively, that I’m old enough to think in decades means that there’s more than an off-chance I’m slipping into boomerville about the past. But I can’t help thinking that the 90s were a simpler time — the beginning of the internet, no social media, radio as the primary means for new music, and (did I mention?) no social media. Life was primarily analog — software hadn’t eaten everything yet. Since the 90s there’s been a Cambrian explosion of communication technologies. And something, some essence of life, seems to have been lost in the process.
I struggle to put my finger on what exactly IT is. It’s like the software eating the world has dehumanized a part of the human experience. As evidence, when was the last time you watched a popular and funny movie where the lead character was joyously making fun of themselves, Adam Sandler aside? Is it even ok to take the piss out of yourself in public, or do we need to run around being caricatures of ourselves to be accepted? Unfortunately, acceptance seems in short supply as anyone that slightly deviates from the norm of acceptable standards is bullied into conventions. When did we prioritize engagement over authenticity? And what does it say about each of us that authenticity doesn’t drive engagement?
Maybe it’s all just growing pains as we adapt to worldwide visibility instead of our local meatspace communities. And to be fair, I do see individuals who seem authentic in the social media hall of mirrors — oddly, most are anonymous identities. I certainly hope that’s a budding trend because I like the tech we use for so many reasons. But I don’t particularly appreciate walking through the streets seeing individuals blurring into their screens as they clamor for attention online. Learning how to accept and laugh at one another online seems like it’d bring a bit more humanity into our tech. After all, none of us should ever, ever forget the immortal words of Kurt Vonnegut:
“I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.”
Rad Things on the Interwebs
Sweet Jebus.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Weekly Range: $27k - $42k
Things are moderately more bullish as we head into a new trading week. Why? Because despite the price dipping as low as $33k to start the week, the bulls were able to rally, closing the week near $38k. It’s a start, and it could turn into something more, but the price is not out of the woods yet. The real tell will come when the price pushes up into the $40k-$41k area, where I anticipate substantial resistance. If the price can break through there, then we might have some confidence that we’re bottoming. Until then, the bears are still in control, and we’ll need to see the bottom of the range continue to hold. To summarize, above $41k, the price action starts to get bullish, below $33k, we’re likely to leg down to the high $20ks. The most likely outcome is for sideways action for at least a couple more weeks, unless the macro markets sell-off again and weigh down Bitcoin’s price in the process.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: Did Bitcoin transfer more value than the Visa network in 2021?
A: Yes.
In 2021, Bitcoin's annual settlement volume was $13.1B, surpassing Visa’s annual settlement volume by more than 20%. That’s a big stinking deal because there are no intermediaries involved on the Bitcoin side of the comparison. Before settling, each Visa transaction has to wind its way through the banking system, backstopped by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin transferred more value, cutting out the costs incurred by the intermediaries in the existing banking system, and each transaction was settled in an hour. The future is upon us.
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