Not Alone
Sunday Ramble
Is the world going bonkers, or is it me? Maybe it’s just the media I’m reading, but if this isn’t Global Weirding, I don’t know what it might look like. Perhaps it’s the juxtaposition of the news I’m reading with the simple place I’m living — a local described it as living in a culture akin to 1990s US, and I don’t think he’s wrong.
Tarapoto lies on the eastern edge of the Andes and is the last major port before the Amazon’s sea of green takes over. Like many other developing areas of the world, most of the amenities of life in Western Democracies can be found here, but without the cynical nihilism gnawing at everyone’s hearts. Tarapotans’ hearts are still fully intact. As an example from dinner this evening, Ana and I spent a few minutes theorizing on what was happening with an anxiety-ridden lad sitting across the restaurant from us, twitching and pawing at his phone. As soon as his date showed up, the story became evident as they fell into a smartphone show-and-tell exchange that I recognized as a modern version of sharing headphones. Simple, human, heartfelt, ordinary. Something I recall from the early 2000s but can’t recall seeing much of in the US since.
That’s not to say the COVID spell isn’t threatening to flood the Peruvian land. There are rumors of an incoming border and in-country lockdown for all those that aren’t vaccinated. Just behind those rumors came other rumors of doctors selling falsified entries into the vaccinated database. Governments push, and markets react. Costa Rica’s business industry just took the government to task for trying the same, and Peru, also a heavily touristed country, may see a similar upheaval from the tourist sector. No one seems to know if the gathering clouds will disipate before anything draconian comes to pass, but judging from the sentiment across the pond in the European corner of the world, folks are putting up a strong fight to avoid it.
Locally, this weekend we just made what we hope to be our final move on our path to settling into Tarapoto. The decision fell for the jungle experience over the city experience. Let me explain: in Tarapoto, like many cities, finding the blend of living close enough to the city for its amenities but far enough away to enjoy the surrounding nature is more complicated than most. The town teems with noisy moto-taxis and raucous cumbia parties on the weekends. On the flip side, being nestled into the soothing sounds of jungle nightlife means an adventure to get groceries, steady electricity, and, most importantly, quality internet.
Amazingly, within a 15-minute moto-taxi ride from the city, we discovered a hamlet that seemed to have it all. An off-grid solar system powers the multiple homes on the property, and a line-of-site tower maintains a steady internet connection with the city of Tarapoto. No power outages and quality internet while living nestled under the jungle canopy was not an opportunity we could pass up. Now, I say all this before we have a reliable means of transportation and the rainy season sky breaks upon our tin-roof-covered heads. I may be a different Kent about it all in a few months, but it feels good to listen to cicadas, frogs, and lack of cumbia music for now.
In the meantime, if your corner of the world is weirding out, or you are, take a few deep breaths and know that sanity continues to exist on the planet. That the world has convulsed like this before. That it will again. And living through these times of upheaval leads to future good times. None of us are ever alone, though many seeking personal gains exploit that fear. Remember that they can’t win while we know otherwise.
Rad Things on the Interwebs
This happened…making El Salvador the first country in the world to tell the IMF to take a hike by paying them off with a bond raised from their Bitcoin mining operations.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Weekly Range: $53k - $70k
This last week, we saw a strong sell-off on the heels of a strengthening dollar, breaking just below $58k, the bottom of my range prediction. There are many potential reasons why, but the most likely is a strengthening dollar amidst COVID turbulence. The good news is that the market's exuberance has been flushed out while momentum indicators have reset. It doesn’t mean that the bottom is over, but it has set the stage for the bull market to continue. On the bearish side, a break below $53k would set the stage for further downside. Many bids are hoping $53k happens, so I suspect we don’t go that low. On the bullish side, the price needs to push over $63.5k before we can consider the bull market back in play. The most realistic is for price action to bounce between $56k and $64k this week.
Until there’s a blow-off top, we shouldn’t expect a two-year bear market to unfold in a longer time frame. For that reason, I’m of the mindset that we don’t see a blow-off top until sometime between March to June 2022, if we do at all. The idea of a supercycle continues to be on the table, though again, it’s still a long way from being confirmed.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: Can I make a phone call on the Bitcoin network?
A: Yes.
While fledgling, RedPhone is a bare-bones app that allows calls to be placed to other RedPhone users across the Bitcoin Lightning Network. It’s got a long way to go to be user-friendly, but these types of applications begin to offer a glimpse at a new form of internet plugged into the most powerful, secure network on the planet: Bitcoin.
Do you have questions or Ramble topics? Leave a comment or reply to the newsletter to reach me.
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