Daily Ramble
I was listening to a podcast today where the guest said that most of us don’t understand the phrase “absolute power corrupts absolutely”. Why? Because we apply it to individuals. And individuals may or may not be corrupted by power, but the institutions they represent, on a long enough time horizon, are. Why? Because power attracts those who seek it. Have you ever met someone seeking power that was healthy?
The batter is only half baked at this point, so don’t dogpile on me too quickly for sharing an uncooked idea, but the concept resonated in my head like a 2 by 4 to the dome. The office of the US President came to mind immediately. I can’t imagine a sane, healthy individual desiring that office. That’s just a notch below Jesus-level martyrdom to seek that office. Central Banks? Fuggedaboudit. There’s not one that hasn’t blown up their nation’s economy on a long enough time scale. How many times have you gone to your local bureaucrat to get permission for building something, getting some paperwork filed, or paying a ticket just to be treated with an incredulous look for…existing? To be fair, that’s not been my experience ALL the time, but enough that it’s become too easy to generalize.
Before I get stuck wallowing in the belief that institutions are inherently corruptible, please drop me some examples in the comments about how wrong I am. I just can’t see any of us getting on too well without institutions either. I’m stuck — throw me a line.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $27.5k - $33.7k
Today: $29.5k - $33k
Tomorrow: $27.5k - $35k
Yesterday’s fireworks with BTC price have ended and we find ourselves in a cool-down period. Both bears and bulls look tired at the moment as the price goes sideways well within the predicted range. After the 20% price drop and recovery yesterday, sideways is a-ok. Healthy in fact. The market getting too hot too soon in the cycle means we’re less likely to get to the $100k - $1M peak prices so many analysts are speculating upon. That’s all to say, I don’t anticipate either a breakout or a breakdown these next 24 hours. TL; DR sideways for the next couple of days.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Did you know the founder of Bitcoin was anonymous? Satoshi Nakamoto. No one knows who he/she/they is/were, and as soon as his (go with me on the obvious pronoun choice) creation was alive and kicking, he exited stage left, never to be heard from again. Literally. That was 11 years ago.
Being the founder, he was one of the initial miners on the network and likely owns 1M of the 21M Bitcoin in existence as a result. That’s more zeros in dollar value than I care to consider. But not one of those bitcoin has moved since the network was conceived. Most analysts consider those bitcoin lost. They may be…certainly the longer they go without moving, the more likely that is true. If any of Satoshi’s bitcoin were to move, it would be hard to predict the impact on the market.
But more interesting is that you’ve heard a lot of people talking about 21M bitcoin. Since 1M haven’t moved in 11 years, there’s really only 20M bitcoin. Yet another reason to participate in the digital land grab sooner than later — it’s smaller than most believe.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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Herbert's the one needing a lifeline!!!
Two questions: what dies TL and DR mean? When is it expected that the last of the 21MM BTC are mined? Last I checked (think I asked Google maybe 6 months ago) the estimate was in the year 2140.