Tea Leaves
Daily Ramble
Tea leaves. Predictions. The ability to see the future has been a chronic endeavor of the human species. From oracles to sages to shamans, those thought to see the future were held in the highest esteem. I don’t fit in any of those categories, but I’ve had a preoccupation with upcoming events in the last few years. If you’ve read my newsletter long enough, you’ve likely picked up on that theme. Taking in the salty ocean air on my bike ride this morning, various trends were weaving together in my mind to create an initial tapestry for the future. I thought I’d share what I’m seeing. Like any good fortune teller, let me preface that with a couple of points:
Time frames are uncertain.
My thoughts may or may not reflect future reality.
To be 100% clear: my thoughts may fit in a wheelbarrow of steaming horse dung once the future becomes the present.
That said, I’ve had my nose in The Fourth Turning the last few weeks. Though written in 1996, it successfully predicted we’d be entering a Crisis sometime around 2004 and ending around 2030. If you don’t sense that we’re in a crisis-era right now, you’ve probably not heard the ever-so-popular boiling frog metaphor and need to click the blue highlighted letters I just wrote. How did the authors predict this would be a Crisis? Because there’s been a Crisis period once every 80 to 100 years for the last 500 years. It’s a fascinating read, but I don’t want to dwell on the 350 pages it takes to understand the saeculum fully. Historically, the Crisis represents the transformation of one phase of society to a new phase. It’s metallurgic, difficult, and cathartic. There has always been war involved. In the end, society regroups and emerges re-energized with a collective spirit. That is if history continues to repeat. I think it will.
So what do I see happening in the years ahead? The dollar-based global financial system will transform. The current US system is going to become hyperinflationary in the years ahead. People will ask for more money from the government, and the Central Banks will provide. Not that they have much choice given the debt spiral that exists. Each time, the dollar will become worth less and less. Bitcoin will be the center of gravity for the new financial system as governments either use it to backstop their currency in the form of blockchain-based surveillance tokens (colloquially known as CBDCs) or directly adopt it. The US will either come together under the weight of the collapsing dollar or splinter along cultural lines into various states. China and the US will be locked in a death spiral as both systems of governance fight for the Iron Throne of the money printer. Hot or cold war is a strong possibility unless one or both agree to let go of the throne in place of Bitcoin, a currency neither control.
Local governments will strengthen as central governments weaken. Citizens will realize that their central government is no longer of service to them as individuals and will begin to re-organize along local lines to support one another. Those with hard assets will be able to ride the debasement of their currency with greater ease than those working paycheck to paycheck. There will be an exodus to the countryside as folks flee the increasing violence of city life. The violence will be driven by the paycheck employees who slip into struggles for sustenance. A shift towards more conservative values will occur as people increasingly value protecting their private property over other matters. The divide between cloud-based work and land-based work will increase as many large corporations are disintermediated by the creative economy. The desire for jobs will be replaced by entrepreneurialism. Wealthy individual donors will emerge as heroes as they realize that their generosity to the community is in everyone’s best interest.
To summarize: we are reaching the moment of “peak individual,” but as the Crisis deepens, we’ll see individuals give way to self-organized collectives. The rocky road we started in the 2008 Crisis kick-off is bumpier in the years ahead but will be coming to a new stasis over the next decade. Stay flexible, adaptable, and willing to change your perspective as new information provides clarity. We’re going to make it by relying on and finding humanity in one another.
Favorite Things on the Interwebs Today
If you’ve not noticed social media profile photos with laser eyes, it’s a symbolic show of support for Bitcoin. The meme has made its way to a Gandhi statue — beyond fitting for the leader who launched non-violent protest to create change.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $51.5k - $57k
Today: $51.5k - $57k
Tomorrow: $50k - $58k
Bitcoin price action has slowed to a near standstill as it has bounced between $53.4k and $56.5k for going on three days. As long as the price of Bitcoin remains over $51.8k on the daily close, this is consolidation after the 19% impulsive move we started the week with. On the upside, we need to see $58k taken on a daily close before we can anticipate more upside ahead. I do not anticipate either side breaking in the next day unless there’s some substantial news that changes the market.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: “Bitcoin is a means to ‘vote with your feet’ without leaving value behind.” What does that mean?
A: Privately held Bitcoin makes it near impossible to enforce capital controls or coerce tax payments.
Individuals can sell all their belongs to BTC, move anywhere in the world with nothing but a memorized phrase, then reconstitute their lives by finding a local buyer for their Bitcoin. Because access to Bitcoin is memorized, it is nearly impossible for border control to detect Bitcoin entering or leaving.
I am not advocating for people to avoid laws or their responsibilities. I am saying that Bitcoin technology makes it extremely difficult for the law to be enforced from the outside.
[Thanks to Max for asking the question]
Thanks for reading,
Kent
Do you have questions or a “Favorite Thing on the Interwebs”? Comment below or reply to the newsletter to reach me.
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