Thanksgiving
Daily Ramble
Ok, I’ve flipped and now I’m flopping back to the original format. Daily Ramble comes first. It’s Thanksgiving after all, and despite being in Portugal, I still plan to celebrate my favorite US Holiday.
Thanksgiving, for my non-US readers, is like Christmas but without the anxieties of gifting. Don’t get me wrong, I get a lot of pleasure from giving and receiving gifts, but subtracting it leaves spending the day with family and friends, making memories, and eating great food. What could be a more ideal holiday?
The beginnings of Thanksgiving are debated, with multiple groups claiming to have had the first. What does seem to be true is that the first was celebrated near 400 years ago with both earlier pilgrims from England and Native Americans who’d helped the pilgrims survive their first winter. What I like about this event is that it preceded the Unites States. It was just people getting on enjoying the best they had to offer one another. It wasn’t for another 150 years after the US became a nation that George Washington, the US’s first President, set the day aside as a National Holiday.
For all those lucky enough to share the day with family and friends, I’d encourage you to practice the family tradition we shared growing up — a moment over the main course for each person to share what they’re most thankful for in the last year. In these COVID times of 2020, it’s easy to get lost focusing on what’s wrong, but sharing gratitude with one another is among the most uplifting practices known. Who knows, it might just become your favorite moment of the day.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
A friend just introduced me to The HU, a Mongolian rockband. If you’re not mesmerized by their work, I’d be impressed.
Bitcoin
Yesterday’s price range prediction: $18k-$25k. (decreasing probabilities after crossing $20k)
Today’s price range prediction: $15.8k - $18.9k
After touching $19.5k yesterday the price trend shifted and we’re pulling back. During the last bull market cycle, 30% retracements lasting between 2-7 weeks were typical. So if you didn’t sell any Bitcoin at the top, probably best to grit your teeth and look away from the screen for a bit while price finds a floor before continuing the uptrend. In the long run, this is quite healthy as it will give a better base for continuing upwards and helps to clear the frothy sentiment in the market. When everyone starts saying things like “you can’t lose”, that’s the time to protect profits. The crowd is rarely right.
Continuing Ed
Why is the price going up so much? We’ve talked about supply and demand in the past, but it’s worth mentioning who is hoovering up the supply. Publicly available data is showing that two large entities are purchasing more Bitcoin than are mined each day: Cash App, and PayPal. And who are they purchasing these Bitcoin for? Paypal and Cash App users. PayPal and Cash App have done a great job of making platforms that are easier to use. It seems the ease of use and brand recognition of these names was what consumers needed to feel confident in purchasing Bitcoin. More exciting is that next year PayPal is planning to allow BTC to be used to fund transactions across their 28M merchants. Demand meets inelastic supply —> Number Go Up. Buckle up…the ride is just beginning.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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