The Game
Daily Ramble
I was inspired listening to Surfer Jim, Peter McCormack, and American Hodl talking on The What Bitcoin Did podcast today. No, I did not make those names up — it’s the names they’re respectively known for on Twitter. The gist of the podcast was how new entrants to the crypto space are fleeced by more knowledgeable folks pushing their pet projects. Surfer Jim came to Twitter fame by speaking truth to a billionaire pushing pet projects. It caused a minor billionaire tantrum — drama that I’m intentionally not providing links to.
And not the point of my Ramble today anyhow. What I want to let my readers in on is The Game. The Game is only understood after living through an entire four-year Bitcoin cycle. Most folks enter the Bitcoin cycle when the price starts to pump — it’s human nature to chase prices by buying high and selling low. Scared at the perceived high prices of Bitcoin, new folks go for what they perceive is better value, the sh*tcoins, which prey on people’s unit bias. “If Bitcoin went from $.10 to $65k, then XYZ coin I’ve barely researched priced at $.10 can also do it. I’ll be a genius for buying the next Bitcoin.” The folks understanding The Game lure the newbs into their trap by preying on unit bias and false narratives that sound plausible. It’s no different than whales’ bubble net fishing:
When the top comes, the crypto whales begin distributing their sh*tcoin positions on the new retail investors, gaining more fiat in the process. As the selling intensifies, the whales, now out of their positions, wait until the market capitulates, as it did two days ago, to come back in and scoop up the cheap Bitcoin at the bottom. Ride the sh*tcoins up for more fiat to turn around and buy more Bitcoin at the bottom.
Different whales play The Game in different ways, but here’s the goal of The Game: accumulate more Bitcoin. To be fair, some sh*tcoins may reach critical mass and exit sh*tcoinery, but you won’t hear me promote any of those possibilities here. My core message: if you don’t understand the casino rules that you’re walking into, you’re the sucker who’s going to leave with an empty wallet. If you can’t win at The Game, and 95% of the market loses when they try, follow the crypto whales’ end goal: accumulate more Bitcoin but do it with a longer time horizon. Patience and studying Bitcoin are the key advantages the retail buyer can use to win The Game.
Favorite Things on the Interwebs Today
Finally! An article that fairly discusses the environmental impacts of Bitcoin mining.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $35k - $45k
Today: $35k - $45k
Weekend: $35k - $46k
The Bitcoin market is beginning to stabilize. The prices have held for a day now, coming up from $35k to a peak of $43k before settling into a range between $39k and $42k. At the moment, I’m leaning more bullish than bearish, but we’re still on thin ice. More Bitcoin continues to flow into exchanges than out of the exchanges. If the last capitulation in March 2020 is any guide for the current market dynamics, then there are still good odds that we come back for a dip into the $35k region. That said, the longer Bitcoin can hold above $40k, the more likely we will see bulls coming into the market again. If we can close over $46k on Sunday, there’s a good chance the market will heat up again. If not, the bear market possibilities will continue to linger.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: What’s the best way to acquire Bitcoin?
A: Cost averaging
Everyone that has had the patience and discipline to cost average into Bitcoin with a four-year time horizon has done very well. Cost averaging means purchasing the same set amount of Bitcoin each week or month. $100 each week, for example.
Looking at it more like a savings plan than an investment has helped many people feel comfortable setting aside a portion of their wages each month to purchase Bitcoin. Not as exciting as playing The Game, but more profitable and easier than trying to learn how.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
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