Wading In
Daily Ramble
When I was younger, I heard a lot about whether various artists were “sell-outs” or not. With rare exceptions, social media seems to have made selling-out acceptable as people do whatever they must to get likes, clicks, and audiences. My boomerism betrays me on this point — if I can’t do what I enjoy and find an audience, it’s not worth doing.
This brings me to a recent video I did for Crypto Tips on Solana, a non-Bitcoin-related blockchain competing in the smart contract platform space that Ethereum pioneered in 2016. Smart contracts might be more easily understood as applications on a global decentralized computer network. It’s a space I’m convinced will continue to grow in the years ahead, though I’m not convinced Ethereum, the incumbent, will be the long-term winner. Tech likes to supersede tech, except where money is concerned. Money is an ephemeral thing that we’re witnessing spontaneously occur for only the second time in human history, with Bitcoin — the first being gold.
All that is to say, I shared my perspective on smart contract platforms on Crypto Tips, complete with a cringe-worthy headshot. However, the reactions are what I find most fascinating—the voice of Jane-Q-Public in action. The first video I shared made the average, and I can tell it hit a chord from the number and type of comments. They ranged from outright dismissal to full agreement to audio complaints. Since I rarely comment on anything online, I find the comment culture helpful yet bizarre.
I’ve stepped into the public side of social media like a timid lake bather, slowly acclimating to the chilly waters. It’s been a fascinating process of self-realization to manage the criticism of the public. I’ve realized that if someone is outside of my circle of respected relationships, trolling is to be ignored, but criticism is worth consideration. I’ve gotten some useful criticism that’s helped with my audio quality, but I can’t think of a single troll comment right now. Which means I must be getting used to these chilly waters. And that’s saying something since we’re hard-wired to focus on the negative more than the positive.
Look at the consistently negative media we consume as proof of our bias towards the negative — it gets more eyeballs. And it makes sense that it should since we’re not that far removed, on an evolutionary scale, from our tribal ancestors. Missing a writhing cobra on the path might mean the end of life versus a serendipitous feast on pheasant eggs meant another 24 hours before feeling hunger pangs again. The all-or-nothing risks of survival hardwired us to prioritize threats. Here’s a great podcast on the topic if you want to dive deeper.
So perhaps, social media is the first time in human history that we’re going to resolve ourselves of the negativity bias. On the other hand, with the constant bombardment of negativity on social media, perhaps we’re pressure cooking ourselves into a new evolutionary state where negativity bounces off us as if it doesn’t exist. Who knows. What I do know is my quality of life improves with less social media.
I’m shy of a pithy wrap-up here as I continue to ponder these ideas. But here’s to enjoying one of our final summer weekends — for us northern hemi dwellers.
Silly Things on the Interweb
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Yesterday: $43.8k - $46.6k
Today: $45.5k - $49k
Weekend: $45.5k - $51.5k
Bitcoin did complete the bullish pivot yesterday, breaking its short-term downtrend started one week ago. The most likely outcome is to head up for $49k in the next couple of days, but failure to continue pushing up would be a bearish shift in the market. It would mark the first time since $29k that a break of a short-term trend did not result in follow-through by the bulls. At the moment, that’s the less likely outcome. Over the weekend, I anticipate the bulls will either push to $49k and consolidate under it, or they will push through into the low $50ks. On the bear side, breaking below $45.5k sets the stage for a longer and lower-priced consolidation.
Bitcoin Q & A
Q: What price range could Bitcoin achieve by the end of this cycle?
A: Estimates range from $100k to $500k per bitcoin.
There’s no certainty that Bitcoin will continue to perform as it has in previous cycles, which have typically topped 18-24 months after the halving occurs. The last halving occurred in May 2020 and reduced the newly minted bitcoin from 1800 per day to 900 per day. If this cycle does play out like the previous two, analysts estimate that the price of Bitcoin could crescendo anywhere from $100k - $250k by March of 2022.
Do you have questions or a “Rad Thing on the Interwebs”? Comment below or reply to the newsletter to reach me.
Do you want to receive Kent’s Corner each weekday?
Me? I offer personal and corporate Bitcoin Implementation Strategies: custody, investing strategy, security, tax management, and inheritance. Contact me for a free initial consultation.