War or Bitcoin?
Daily Ramble
Think I’m being dramatic with my subject line? I don’t think I am. But I do think I’m considering a question that most everyone will be considering within the next 2 years.
Bold, I know, but track my logic here. The US shared social fabric is being ripped apart before our eyes — just look at last week. People hold out hope that it’ll come back to the way it was before the pandemic, but I’ve got bad news: it’s not. It can’t be. In the same way that all the money printing after the 2008 collapse drove inequity and led to the populism that elected Trump, the money printing from the COVID pandemic is accelerating the gulf between rich and poor in real-time. Just like going back to the relative harmony of 2007 isn’t likely, the disequilibrium of 2019 isn’t possible to recapture either.
In the history of the US, it’s only when there’s been a common enemy to unite the country that divisions were thrown aside and the country united. I held hope when the pandemic hit that COVID would become that common enemy, but I was completely wrong — it turns out viruses can’t be humanized enough to become an existential threat. We need a face to turn into an enemy.
That leaves the options as either civil war or Bitcoin. Civil war? Without an external threat to unify the two sides, each side views the other as THE external threat. The violence at the capital last week is unlikely to be the last without a new social fabric. And Bitcoin? Bitcoin has been mocked, ignored, and fought over since it’s inception, but it is undeniably here. The underdog story of all underdog stories. Begrudgingly, those that did the mocking, ignoring, and fighting are adopting it. And as it’s being adopted, THE REASONS why it is becoming adopted are creating consensus amongst people. That shared agreement is the seed of a new social fabric. Something that all can agree upon being adopted at the grassroots level, with no one in charge, securing our collective value, is exactly the sort of thing that leads to a new social fabric.
As Buckminster Fuller said, you don’t fight the existing system, you build a better system and make the existing obsolete. If US citizens want off the warpath, they need to take Bitcoin seriously, and those of us outside the US better hope they do — war has knock-on effects for all of us.
Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today
The Hidden Forces podcast about America’s Political Precipice inspired my Ramble today. I’ve got to give it the Favorite Thing on the Interwebs Today award. Listen Here
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Saturday: $36.6k - $50k
Today: $30.8k - $38.3k
Tomorrow: $30.8k - $36k
On Friday, I wrote that there was starting to be an inflow of Bitcoin coming to exchanges. I thought it was an early indicator the tide was turning but did not anticipate how quickly the tide would go out. Fast. My Saturday prediction (I forgot it was the weekend or would have provided a price prediction for the entire weekend…mea culpa) was grossly underestimating this price decline as the price started dropping from $41.5k and didn’t stop until a few moments ago. I’m starting to suspect we’re finding a floor near $30.8k now. All in, it’s been a 27% price decline, which may be shocking for some, but is quite typical of Bitcoin’s price action in a macro bull trend. We’ll know in the next 24 hours if there’s more downside, but I’m betting we see some sideways action instead for the next couple of days while Bitcoin tries to pivot and continue its bull trend.
Bitcoin Ed Bite
Why does Bitcoin’s decentralization matter?
Without any one person or group to hold accountable, it becomes near impossible to regulate. If you read the news about Facebook launching a cryptocurrency in 2019, called Libra, you may also have recalled that many tech industry leaders were pulled into Congress to explain how it would or wouldn’t hurt the economy. Congress threw the book at Facebook and ultimately, Facebook’s plan got downgraded into something now called Diem that’s a fraction of its former ambition.
The point is: there was no one representing Bitcoin at that hearing. And Bitcoin has not changed an iota either.
Thanks for reading,
Kent
Got questions? Comment below or reply and drop me a line!
If you’re not on the email list, subscribe now — just this newsletter, no advertising.
Me? I offer personal and corporate Bitcoin Implementation Strategies: setup, investing strategy, security, tax management, and inheritance. Contact me for a free initial consult.